2022 Predictions

Link to Google Doc

This year, I am doing a number of predictions. They are all in this post, and they are all presented with a probability assignment. I have more detailed reasoning for each prediction, and if you are interested, just ask and I can provide the reasoning. The predictions span my personal life, politics, sports, and other fun stuff. Of course the probabilities will change over the year, but I will not provide any public updates (other than an unlikely mid-year update, see below).

Swedish Politics

Liberalerna not getting into riksdagen: 75%

Miljöpartiet not getting into riksdagen: 35%

Socialdemokraterna getting the most votes: 87%

Sverigedemokraterna getting the most votes: 4%

Moderaterna getting more votes than Sverigedemokraterna: 54%

Any party currently not in riksdagen getting more than 2% of the votes: 5%

Magdalena Andersson being the prime minister after the election: 35%

More shootings in Sweden in 2022 than in 2021: 44%

Unemployment rate in Sweden lower than 8% at the end of 2022: 35%

US Politics

Anyone in the US (inside the borders) being killed by a drone: 15%

Joe Biden dying: 8%

World Politics

China attacking Taiwan: 9%

Nuclear war: 1.2%

Crypto

Bitcoin over $70 thousand at the end of 2022: 30%

Bitcoin below $10 thousand at the end of 2022: 8%

Ethereum over $7.5 thousand at the end of 2022: 25%

Ethereum less than $1 thousand at the end of 2022: 5%

Ethereum overtaking Bitcoin in market capitalization anytime, and for any duration, during 2022: 5%

Market capitalization of the entire crypto-market, according to CoinMarketCap, spending an entire week over $3 trillion in 2022: 65%

Bitcoin dominance, also according to CoinMarketCap, being reduced to less than 30% for any amount of time during 2022: 75%

The floor price of Bored Ape Yacht Club above 80 ETH at the end of 2022: 25%

Higher volume on OpenSea in 2022 than in 2021: 90%

Personal

Posting more than 12 blogposts during 2022 (including this one): 60%

Posting more blogposts in 2022 than in 2021: 85%

Post this list of predictions before January 10 2022: 95%

Post a mid-year update to this list of predictions: 15%

Posting at least two blogposts in each month of the year: 15%

Running a combined total of more than 350 kilometers during 2022: 60%

Running a 10k faster than 45:00 minutes: 25%

Going to bed earlier than 22:00 for 10 or more nights in a row: 1%

Finish more than 40 books: 90%

Getting at least 4 excellent (highest grade at SSE) in the 8 courses I will take next year: 65%

Being happier in 2022 than in 2021: 55%

COVID

Me catching any variant of Covid during 2022: 45%

Over 6.6 thousand dead from Covid in Sweden during 2022: 30%

A new variants appearing that leads to a significant amount of cases worldwide (> 2 million cases)

Science/tech

The JAMES WEBB Telescope finding something groundbreaking: 5%

Clear evidence for life outside of earth: 0.00001%

AI solving hard math or science problems by itself: 2%

Over $2 billion in venture capital funding for the development of fusion: 65%

Elon Musk or SpaceX announcing a formal mission to Mars: 60%

Sports

Winter Olympics 2022 getting canceled: 15%

Sweden getting more than 10 medals in the Winter Olympics 2022: 72%

Sweden getting more than 15 medals in the Winter Olympics 2022: 35%

Norway winning the most medals of any country in the Winter Olympics 2022: 33%

Liverpool winning the Premier League: 26%

Chelsea winning the Premier League: 27%

Manchester City winning the Premier League: 30%

F1 winners

Max Verstappen: 15%

Lewis Hamilton: 13%

Nikita Mazepin: 2%

A winner that is not from Mercedes, Ferrari, or Red Bull: 22%

Merceds winning the Constructor’s: 23%

Other

The queen of England dying: 15%

Kendrick Lamar releasing another album: 65%

Another period of only online teaching at SSE: 10%

Over $400 million moved by GiveWell during 2022: 75%