Or, Why We Might Not Understand Intelligence Before Creating It With the rapid popularization of generative AI in the wake of ChatGPT, I’ve started to see more and more talk about the potential for human-level AI or AGI. One particular opinion that I’ve seen on several occasions, even from some famous AI researchers and critics, …
Last year, I did some public one-shot forecasts for the first time. I modeled my attempt at this from Scott Alexander who has done this for a time and I think it is a fun way to make sure that I keep track of what is happening in the world. It is also good calibration …
This year, I’m doing another list of one-shot predictions. This time, with a slight difference since Astral Codex Ten is running a 2023 Prediction Contest with 50 questions. I will show these questions with my predictions in this list and I will also add some additional questions that I find interesting to forecast. As in …