Over the past years, I have on a few occasions been writing about prediction markets. I’ve shown how they are valuable in both business and politics and I’ve discussed Robin Hanson’s suggestion of incorporating prediction markets into democracy—what he calls Futarchy. But when discussing prediction markets with people, one of the most common questions is …
While I’m not sure how many enjoy these types of posts, I think they are good at incentivizing me to do more forecasting. It also helps me practice being more legible in my reasoning for my forecasts. So I really don’t care if anyone likes these posts. From now on, I think I will try …
Given some recent news and developments, I thought it would be appropriate with a quick forecasting update where I give some of my recent forecasting estimates and the reasoning behind them. I hope that this can help others update their forecasts and bring some clarity to the situations. Unfortunately, media does not really do forecasting …
January flew by, but I had some time to consume both some old classics and some new pieces that are really interesting. Much of what I’ve been reading the last month has been making me want to write longer essays, hopefully I’ll find the time and inspiration to do that later on this month. This …
Or, Why We Might Not Understand Intelligence Before Creating It With the rapid popularization of generative AI in the wake of ChatGPT, I’ve started to see more and more talk about the potential for human-level AI or AGI. One particular opinion that I’ve seen on several occasions, even from some famous AI researchers and critics, …
Last year, I did some public one-shot forecasts for the first time. I modeled my attempt at this from Scott Alexander who has done this for a time and I think it is a fun way to make sure that I keep track of what is happening in the world. It is also good calibration …
This year, I’m doing another list of one-shot predictions. This time, with a slight difference since Astral Codex Ten is running a 2023 Prediction Contest with 50 questions. I will show these questions with my predictions in this list and I will also add some additional questions that I find interesting to forecast. As in …
Due to me having to spend quite a lot of time finishing my thesis, I did not have time for this post at the beginning of December. Instead, I will provide you with some interesting reading for the end of the year. Modeling the End of Monkeypox by Jared Leibowich The newly started Asterisk mag, …
Days with hotter temperatures are becoming more and more common, as temperatures as well as the likelihood for extreme weather increase due to climate change. Hot temperatures affect human health and cognition negatively when the exposure is contemporaneous—students perform worse on tests and elderly die from it. It also turns out that exposure to heat …
This month, I’m trying a new type of post with links to content that I’ve enjoyed over the past month. (And some links that I will likely enjoy in the future) I will provide a couple of links and some short commentary on the content, in the hopes of sharing my interests in an easier …