Forecasting Update

Given some recent news and developments, I thought it would be appropriate with a quick forecasting update where I give some of my recent forecasting estimates and the reasoning behind them. I hope that this can help others update their forecasts and bring some clarity to the situations. Unfortunately, media does not really do forecasting …

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Predictions 2023

This year, I’m doing another list of one-shot predictions. This time, with a slight difference since Astral Codex Ten is running a 2023 Prediction Contest with 50 questions. I will show these questions with my predictions in this list and I will also add some additional questions that I find interesting to forecast. As in …

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Frying the Brain

Days with hotter temperatures are becoming more and more common, as temperatures as well as the likelihood for extreme weather increase due to climate change. Hot temperatures affect human health and cognition negatively when the exposure is contemporaneous—students perform worse on tests and elderly die from it. It also turns out that exposure to heat …

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