Link to Google Doc Epistemic confidence: The theory is not mine and I think it is pretty likely that I have misunderstood it in some important way. The discussion is based on loose thoughts, likely also wrong in some dimension. Human values are elusive, they are hard to completely specify, they seem to be very …
Link to Google Doc In the previous post I talked about scaling, progress in AI, and the possible paths to AGI. Today, I will lay the specific paths aside and instead focus on the final product—I will discuss my views on the timeline for AGI as well as what happens after. These views are a …
Link to Google Doc The road to AGI has long seemed to be in its very infancy, but the recent success of deep learning has made prediction timelines for AGI drop significantly (see Metaculus). A significant part of forecasting AI progress comes from how one expects AGI to be developed. Do we need additional significant …
Link to Google Doc Late 2017 was when I first got both interested and scared about AI. That was when AlphaZero, DeepMind’s chess, go, and atari playing agent was released that could learn the games without knowing the rules beforehand. AlphaZero started form scratch with zero knowledge of how to play chess, Shogi, or Go. …
Link to Google Doc The brain is a magnificent organ. Its complexity has made it hard to understand, and we are probably far away from a complete model of the brain. However, I still find it interesting to read about theories, models, and possible explanations to the brain’s amazing abilities. In this post, I will …