While I’m not sure how many enjoy these types of posts, I think they are good at incentivizing me to do more forecasting. It also helps me practice being more legible in my reasoning for my forecasts. So I really don’t care if anyone likes these posts. From now on, I think I will try to experiment with a new format in which I present all of my currently open forecasts. Then each month or bi-monthly, I’ll post an update with all my new forecasts and any updates to old forecasts. For all new forecasts in the coming posts, I will explain the reasoning behind each forecast and significant update, but in this initial post I will not do any explaining except for the most recent forecasts. (If you really want to know you can reach out to me via comments or mail.)
First, a short note on the forecasting process. I have two forecasting categories, Full Predictions and Random Metaculus Predictions. I came up with the latter category as an experiment of trying to see if there’s a large selection bias in the questions that I choose to forecast. A priori, I thought it was likely that the questions I choose, even though I try to choose from all types of questions, are going to be questions where I have a better than random chance of forecasting well. Each week I use a random number generator to choose a question from Metaculus that I need to forecast—over time, I want to be able to compare my performance on random questions and questions chosen by myself. For the other category, I create new forecasts when I feel like I’ve found a question that interests me.
Open Predictions
Full Predictions
Will Kennedy get >10% chance of winning the Democratic nomination for the 2024 election, as gauged by electionbettingodds.com?
0.23 -> 0.35 -> 0.3
I created this forecast as soon as I first heard Kennedy on the All In Podcast. Being even close to winning against a sitting president in your own party is extremely hard, so the prior here is low. At the same time, it quite often happens that challengers spike in the betting markets due to some debate performance or similar. Getting >10% chance of winning is a low bar, still I think it is not very likely to happen.
Will the US default on its debt before 2024?
0.08 -> 0.04 -> 0.02 -> 0.005
I started forecasting this a couple of weeks before the debt ceiling deadline. Not much to say here, the prior should be low since the US has never been defaulting before. The stakes are also way to high for any party to realistically happen.
Will a team currently not in the top 4 of the constructor’s championship win a GP?
0.005
This should also be low based on priors. A further update downwards from a simple base rate is that the reliability of today’s cars is much higher than in previous decades.
Will a team other than Red Bull win a Grand Prix during the 2023 season?
0.92
This is a natural question to ask in the wake of the Red Bull dominance in the first part of this season. My current estimate is based on base rates, this has never happened before. But I’m considering updating downwards based on the argument that reliability is much higher than in previous decades. Still, I will wait for more races to update.
Will I finish reading the book Reinforcement Learning An Introduction before leaving Japan?
0.3
This is a personal one, I’m really trying to read it. But it is very long, +450 pages, and I have a bad track record on this type of prediction. Therefore I’m starting low.
Will Volvo Cars sell more than 1.2 million cas during the full year 2025?
0.005
Made this prediction based on the unveiling of their new model. In their recent full year 2022 report, they said that their goal is to sell 1.2 million cars annually “mid-century”. Based on 2022 numbers, they need about ~24% sales growth per year. Assuming that their sales growth is drawn from a normal distribution, with mean 0.10 and standard deviation 0.15 (these are generous numbers, taking height for the new model), a 24% sales growth happens 17% of the time. Assuming that each year is independent from the former, then the probability of drawing 24% sales growth three times is about 0.005.
Will the FOMC announce a rate hike at their next meeting on June 13th?
0.25
Given the recent fairly good numbers on inflation and the messaging in the last meeting, where they among other things highlighted the lagging nature of the effects of monetary policy, it seems fairly probable that they will pause hiking for now.
Will the first public assassination by a drone happen in the US within the coming 5 years? i.e before 2027
0.8 -> 0.78
Will China’s total fertility rate be above 1.7 in 2031?
0.65 -> 0.35 -> 0.3
Will there be at least one nuclear detonation in war by 2050?
0.21 -> 0.25 -> 0.38 -> 0.29 -> 0.27 -> 0.24
At least one offensive nuclear weapon used offensively before January 1, 2024?
0.17 -> 0.14 -> 0.128 -> 0.05 -> 0.06 -> 0.04 -> 0.025
Conditional on Putin dying or otherwise being removed from office, will the Ukraine-Russia conflict end within two months?
0.85 -> 0.8 -> 0.75
Conditional on a Russian nuclear weapon used offensively, will the US/NATO respond with offensive use of a nuclear weapon before January 1, 2024?
0.15 -> 0.12 -> 0.08
Conditional on humanity creating AGI, what is the likelihood that it arises from current deep learning approaches? i.e adding more layers
0.35 -> 0.42 -> 0.65
Will the 4 year average of shootings in Sweden 2026 be lower than the current 4 year average? (28/10/22: 373)
0.57 -> 0.42
Will the 4 year average of deaths from shootings in Sweden 2026 be lower than the current 4 year average? (28/10/22: 68)
0.6 -> 0.4
Will the price of BTC be higher than $100k at the end of 2025?
0.15 -> 0.09 -> 0.12 -> 0.14
Will there be a large-scale armed conflict in Russia before 2030?
0.3 -> 0.45 -> 0.35
Will Sweden join NATO before Jan 1st 2024?
0.7 -> 0.65 -> 0.69 -> 0.65 -> 0.6
Will Donald Trump win the GOP nomination for the 2024 election?
0.39 -> 0.42 -> 0.46 -> 0.59 -> 0.8
Will DeSantis win the GOP nomination for the 2024 election?
0.32 -> 0.33 -> 0.31 -> 0.28 -> 0.08
Will someone other than Donald Trump or DeSantis win the GOP nomination for the 2024 election?
0.29 -> 0.25 ->0.23 -> 0.13 -> 0.12
Will total global corporate investment in AI in 2023 reach or exceed $300 billion, according to the Artificial Intelligence Index?
0.43 -> 0.75 -> 0.85
Will DeepMind release GATO 2.0 before Jan 1st 2024? (This includes any type of successor to the original Gato model, no matter the name.)
0.65 -> 0.57
Will I eat lab grown lion or tiger meat before 2030?
0.7
Will there be more than 10k confirmed human cases of H5N1 globally before Jan 1st 2024?
0.04 -> 0.06 -> 0.04 -> 0.02 -> 0.01
Will there be more than 10k confirmed human deaths of H5N1 globally before Jan 1st 2024?
0.02 -> 0.03 -> 0.02 -> 0.01 -> 0.005
Will there be a terrorist attack, labeled as such by the Swedish government, with more than 5 dead in Sweden before 2025?
0.054 -> 0.075
Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine before 2024?
0.2 -> 0.25 -> 0.28 -> 0.15
Will Lewis Hamilton win any GP in Formula 1 in the 2023 season?
0.84 -> 0.62 -> 0.6 -> 0.57 -> 0.52
Will Aston Martin finish above Mercedes in the Formula 1 Constructor’s championship in 2023?
0.12 -> 0.23 -> 0.25 -> 0.45 -> 0.35
Will TikTok be banned in the US before Jan 1st 2024?
0.3 -> 0.45
Will Mercedes win over Ferrari in the World Constructors Championship in Formula 1 2023?
0.58 -> 0.65 -> 0.52 -> 0.65 -> 0.8
Will there be a large-scale school reform, impacting the financing or control of private schools, before the end of the current government?
0.75 -> 0.65 -> 0.75
Will Swedish GDP growth in 2023 be less than 0?
0.6 -> 0.72 -> 0.85
Will the Swedish central bank lower the interest rate before Jan 1st 2024?
0.3 -> 0.08 -> 0.05
Will any more countries ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023? (this was after Italy banned ChatGPT)
0.67 -> 0.35 -> 0.25 -> 0.15 -> 0.03 -> 0.01 -> 0.005 -> 0.001
If the Election in 2024 is between Trump and Biden, will Trump win?
0.45 -> 0.53
Will Apple Watch feature a blood pressure monitor before 2025?
0.82 -> 0.65
Will I be able to run at least 520 km during the full 2023 year?
0.7 -> 0.85 -> 0.9
Will I weigh less than 75 kilograms when returning to Sweden from Japan?
0.45 -> 0.25 -> 0.08
Will I have a streak of more than 14 days of using Anki during 2023?
0.2 -> 0.25 -> 0.18 -> 0.28 -> 0.35 -> 0.4 -> 0.3
Random Metaculus Predictions
Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023?
0.6 -> 0.65 -> 0.3 -> 0.05 -> 0.03
Will there be an Israel-Hezbollah war by 2030? (>100 deaths in total in weapon fire before 2030)
0.35
Will Russia incorporate Belarus into the Union State by 2030?
0.35 -> 0.45
Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023?
0.05 -> 0.03 -> 0.01
Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a government project?
0.09
Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of Semaglutide for the treatment of obesity by 2027?
0.12 -> 0.1
Will the FDA approve MDMA for use against PTSD before 2025?
0.65
Will Iowa host another “first in the nation” Democratic caucus before 2029?
0.35
Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?
0.20 -> 0.25
Will China land the next person on the moon?
0.15
Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces over the India-China border before 2024?
0.19 -> 0.1