Last year, I did some public one-shot forecasts for the first time. I modeled my attempt at this from Scott Alexander who has done this for a time and I think it is a fun way to make sure that I keep track of what is happening in the world. It is also good calibration …
This year, I’m doing another list of one-shot predictions. This time, with a slight difference since Astral Codex Ten is running a 2023 Prediction Contest with 50 questions. I will show these questions with my predictions in this list and I will also add some additional questions that I find interesting to forecast. As in …
Link to Google Doc On February 28th this year, I posted a couple of forecasts about the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Now, with the recent developments, I think it is time for a formal update to some predictions and I’ll also post my estimates to a couple of new questions. First, I’ll admit that it …
Link to Google Doc In the previous post I talked about scaling, progress in AI, and the possible paths to AGI. Today, I will lay the specific paths aside and instead focus on the final product—I will discuss my views on the timeline for AGI as well as what happens after. These views are a …
Link to Google Doc The development in the Ukraine-Russia conflict is terrifying and I wish health and safety to Ukraine and all Ukrainians. I do not have much to add other than I hope that it resolves quickly, with as few lives as possible spilled. I also hope that the suffering for the Russian people, that …
Updating Forecasts in Light of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine Read More »
Link to Google Doc This year, I am doing a number of predictions. They are all in this post, and they are all presented with a probability assignment. I have more detailed reasoning for each prediction, and if you are interested, just ask and I can provide the reasoning. The predictions span my personal life, …