Predictions 2023

This year, I’m doing another list of one-shot predictions. This time, with a slight difference since Astral Codex Ten is running a 2023 Prediction Contest with 50 questions. I will show these questions with my predictions in this list and I will also add some additional questions that I find interesting to forecast. As in …

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2022 Predictions

Link to Google Doc This year, I am doing a number of predictions. They are all in this post, and they are all presented with a probability assignment. I have more detailed reasoning for each prediction, and if you are interested, just ask and I can provide the reasoning. The predictions span my personal life, …

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